Finals Preview & Seedings: The Top 4 | Thebigtip

With the finals now upon us, final positions on the ladder are no longer relevant and it all comes down to which side enters September in the best form. As it stands, there seems to be 3 genuine premiership contenders in Geelong, Collingwood and St.Kilda. Nevertheless, you cannot write off the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn who loom as danger sides.

We all know how the ladder finished at the end of the home and away season. However, this article aims to rank the final 8 sides in terms of flag favouritism. Although Collingwood finished as the minor premiers, I believe that if it were ranked similar to a tennis style format, Geelong would well and truly be the number 1 seed. On this note, the following is my interpretation of the final September seedings.



1st Seed: Geelong

Win-Loss-Draw: 17-5-0; Ladder Position: 2nd

Geelong is perhaps the Roger Federer of the competition whilst he was still the world number 1. The only question is whether they resemble the swiss master at the end of his unbelievable run, or whilst he was still at his peak.

Geelong has the opportunity to be remembered as one of the greatest ever sides in AFL history. In an era dominated by defensive structures, Geelong has remained committed to an attacking and high-risk game-plan that has paid dividends. Many sides have tried to replicate the Geelong game-plan with little success. The reason that Geelong is able to play with such freedom is because they have played with each other for 5-10 years and understand how each other play. 

Many have questioned whether Geelong has actually improved in 2010. I don’t believe they have. However, they have equally not declined and have made minor changes to their structures. Obviously, James Podsiadly has been an instant success story which has given the Cats a genuine goal-kicking full forward. They have also welcomed back Josh Hunt from a knee injury and guys like Taylor and Longergan have really improved to help fill the void of Harley and Egan who are no longer in the side. I also think Joel Selwood has scarily improved as a player in the 2nd half of 2010 as he now has learnt to deal with attention from the opposition.

Nevertheless, the biggest change has been the rotation of roles of Paul Chapman and Gary Ablett. Chapman has enjoyed an injury free year as well as a definite improvement in his aerobic capacity. This has meant he has played the majority of his football as a permanent midfielder and has consistently won 30+ possessions a game. On the flip side, Gary Ablett has played at least 50% of his football as a forward. Ablett started the season on fire, but then experienced a slight dip in form. Since the loss to Adelaide in Round 16, Ablett’s most dangerous football has been as a full forward. He was beaten by Carrazzo in the midfield in Round 21, but moved forward to kick 4 goals in the 2nd half. Ablett has kicked 44.23 this year, which is a huge return from a guy averaging 31.4 disposals a game.

This makes Geelong incredibly dangerous as they have a lot of flexibility to change their structure if the game is not going their way. A side may be able stop Chapman or Ablett, yet Thompson can reverse their roles and it is very unlikely a side can find a match-up who can be flexible enough to play in dual positions.


For all the talk about how attacking Geelong is, there is no doubt that the Cats slightly tweak their game-plan in September. Throughout the Home and Away season, Geelong concentrate on their own structures and pay very little respect to opposition midfields. This at time means certain sides can gain momentum and occasionally get on top. Carlton, Collingwood and Adelaide did this. The Cats will not panic and try to shut the game down. Thompson backs his side in to win by sticking to Plan A, even if it means losing.

Yet, in a finals series, they have the ability to close a game up and shut down key play-makers. The proof is in last years Grand Final where Jimmy Bartel moved onto Lenny Hayes in the second half. Expect guys like Kelly, Bartel and Enright to do jobs if required in this year’s final series. I also think we’ll see Cameron Ling play in a defensive forward role as he has seemingly carried some niggling injuries and his pace does not seem to be there to play on the best midfielders. He can be very dangerous in this role, as he is a great shot on goal and can play on the best attacking defenders with ease. He was dangerous playing on Hurn in Round 22.

The only real question mark for the Cats is how they structure their forward and ruck division. Hawkins and Blake have been OK but have not demanded their spot. Ottens will return to the side as the main ruckman. Podsiadly will miss Round 1 of the finals which will allow both Blake and Hawkins to hold their spot, but it will be interesting to see who makes way for the J-Pod when/if he returns.

The other point of interest is how Cam Mooney goes in the finals. He is really struggling in terms of accuracy in his kicking. The nightmares of 2008 will always remain on his mind, and in such an even finals race, the Cats need Mooney on song in front of the big sticks.


The Cats will have to face the Saints first up which is a tough assignment. The Cats lost badly to the Saints in Round 13. However, they are likely to get an easier game in the preliminary final if they get through. I believe that to win the flag this year, you will have to beat Geelong first. They are still the benchmark. I think they’ll be there on Grand Final day, and at the moment my money is on them.


The Main man for finals: Paul Chapman

For all the talk about Ablett, I strongly believe Paul Chapman is the most damaging player on the Cats list. He was the Norm Smith Medallist in 2009, and if anything he enters this year’s finals campaign in the best shape of his career. I have no doubt that this finals series is going to be similar to 2009 in the sense it will be congested, tight and contested. A guy like Chapman has the ability to impose himself on a contest and kick the game-breaking goal.